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Yale University’s Budget Lab estimates that federally legalizing marijuana could bring in $57.9 billion in new federal tax revenue over the next 10 years. If every remaining state also legalized, that number could jump to $111.3 billion. The model assumes a federal excise tax of $0.00625 per milligram of THC, which would add roughly 15% to the average retail price.
And the tax revenue could go beyond the cannabis tax itself. Federal legalization would move more of the industry into the legal economy, meaning workers and businesses currently operating outside the federal tax system could start paying income, payroll and other federal taxes. Cannabis businesses could also finally escape the restrictions of 280E, which currently prevents them from taking many standard business deductions. Yale estimates the U.S. cannabis market was already worth about $25 billion in 2024 and could approach $40 billion by 2035 even without federal legalization. There are plenty of variables that could change the final numbers, but Yale’s analysis makes it pretty clear that cannabis could become a seriously significant source of federal tax revenue.
This is a summary.
Please read the original article: Marijuana Could Generate $111 Billion In Tax Revenue Over A Decade If Legalized Federally And In All 50 States, Yale Report Shows
Original article written by Tom Angell. Published on August 17, 2026 by Marijuana Moment.
